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How to Identify Fast-Growing and Declining Occupations

This article explains how to quickly find fast‑growing and declining occupations in HolonIQ’s Labour Market Insights using the Index Report, switching the view to Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), and using the Bubble report to visualise trends.

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Identifying the fast-growing and declining occupations using the Index Report of Labour Market Insights

Here are the steps:

  1. Go to Labour Market Insights → select your country / region.

  2. Open the Index Report from the report selector/menu.

3. Select the occupation level you want to view (specific role).

4. Look at the growth columns (by default these may show indexed values or total change).

Switching the growth view to CAGR

  1. In the Index Report header or metrics dropdown, find the “View” or “Metric” selector.

  2. Choose “CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate)” or “Annualised growth” from the list.

  3. The occupation table will refresh showing CAGR for each occupation.

Why use CAGR:

It normalises growth across different time periods and smooths volatility, making it easier to rank roles by sustained growth rate.

Understanding positive vs negative growth and high‑growth vs declining roles

  • Positive vs Negative:

    • Positive growth: CAGR > 0 — more jobs at the end.

    • Negative growth: CAGR < 0 — fewer jobs at the end.

  • High vs Declining:

    • High‑growth: Use your organisation’s benchmark (e.g., CAGR ≥ 5%) or sort the list and inspect the top X roles.

    • Declining: Sort for the lowest CAGR values (the most negative).

Quick reference table:

Term

What to look for

Positive growth

CAGR > 0; check absolute change for scale

Negative growth

CAGR < 0

High growth

Top of CAGR ranking (or define threshold, e.g., ≥ 5%)

Declining

Bottom of CAGR ranking (most negative values)

Using the Bubble report to visualise fast‑growing vs declining roles

The Bubble report gives a visual view of growth vs size so you can spot high‑growth small roles and large roles with growth/decline.

How to use:

  1. Open the Bubble report from Labour Market Insights.

  2. Set axes:

    • X‑axis = CAGR (or absolute change if preferred).

    • Y‑axis = Employment size (current or base year).

  3. Set bubble size = total jobs (or change magnitude).

  4. Set bubble colour = sector or occupation group to add context.

  5. Apply filters (location, timeframe, skill level) to focus the view.

Interpreting the bubble chart:

  • Top‑right quadrant: large occupations with strong positive CAGR (high‑priority, high‑impact growth roles).

  • Bottom‑right: small occupations with high CAGR (emerging, potentially niche).

  • Left side: roles in decline (negative CAGR); the bottom‑left are small declining roles, top‑left are large declining roles (high‑impact losses).

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