HolonIQ's Open-Source Global Trends Ontology maps the micro, major and mega trends in the global economy.
Mega Trends
A "mega-trend" is a large, transformative, global force that impacts many areas such as economies, societies, cultures, and personal lives. It's a significant shift that defines the future with a broad spectrum of impacts and implications. These trends often have a long term, lasting effect on the world, with observable shifts over years or decades.
Major Trends
A major-trend is a large global force that impacts at least one area of economies, societies and is often application across many geographies.
Micro Trends
Micro Trends are generally specific to an industry or geography.
Consensus Trends
Consensus trends are identified by HolonIQ by indexing trends identified by experts worldwide that are mapped to our trends ontology.
Topics versus trends.
A topic and a trend can be understood as different aspects of information in a context. A topic refers to the subject or theme of discussion, research, study, or conversation. It is usually broad and can encompass a wide variety of subtopics. For example, "climate change" is a topic that includes many related subtopics such as global warming, greenhouse gases, deforestation, and more. A topic does not inherently suggest any particular movement or change over time.
A trend, on the other hand, is indicative of a general direction in which something is developing or changing over a specific period. This change could be an increase or decrease, a growth or decline, a shift in behavior, opinion, or style, among others. For instance, the increased usage of renewable energy sources is a trend within the broader topic of energy production.
Trends usually carry a temporal dimension, often analyzed in the context of past, present, and future. They reflect an observable pattern that has emerged over a certain timeframe. Conversely, topics are less time-dependent, and can remain relevant for a longer duration, irrespective of specific shifts or changes within them.
So, to summarize:
Topics are broad areas of interest or discussion.
Trends represent the movement or direction of change within a topic over time.
Drivers versus Trends
In the context of trends and scenario analysis, drivers refer to the key factors or forces that shape and influence the direction and outcome of a particular trend or scenario. These drivers are the underlying forces that have the potential to drive change and have a significant impact on the future.
Drivers can be categorized into various types, depending on the context of the analysis. Some common types of drivers include:
Technological Drivers: These drivers pertain to advancements and innovations in technology that can influence trends and scenarios. They encompass factors such as new inventions, breakthroughs in research and development, and the adoption and diffusion of technological solutions.
Socioeconomic Drivers: Socioeconomic drivers include factors related to societal and economic conditions. These may include demographic changes, income levels, cultural shifts, consumer behavior, labor market dynamics, and economic policies.
Environmental Drivers: Environmental drivers focus on factors related to the natural environment, including climate change, natural resource availability, ecological sustainability, and regulations or policies aimed at environmental conservation.
Political and Regulatory Drivers: Political and regulatory drivers involve factors influenced by government policies, regulations, and political decisions. These drivers can significantly impact industries, markets, and social trends.
Geopolitical Drivers: Geopolitical drivers refer to factors related to international relations, conflicts, alliances, and political dynamics between nations. These drivers can have implications for global trade, security, and the overall geopolitical landscape.
Cultural Drivers: Cultural drivers encompass changes in values, beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors within a society or community. These drivers may include shifts in popular culture, social norms, lifestyle choices, and cultural influences on various industries.
By identifying and analyzing these drivers, trend and scenario analysts can gain a better understanding of the forces shaping the future. This enables them to develop more accurate predictions, forecasts, and scenarios that help individuals, businesses, and organizations make informed decisions.